What A Difference a Year Makes

It is pretty much the end of 2009. It is also the end of the first decade of the Millennium. Hard to believe that we’ve gone through ten years since the Y2K scare. Also, hard to believe we had three different presidents since the turn of the Millennium: One that was impeached, one that retired extremely unpopular and one that is becoming extremely unpopular.

Barak Hussein Obama has been president for 11 months. So, this year is his for all its good and bad. There is no doubt about that. When he became President, the entire world was energized. America had elected a new savior. He was young, energetic and promised hope and change. And, he is the first African American President in US history. All of the scars of the past had disappeared. Per the Progressives, we had become a true shining city on the hill. The Republican Party was in deep trouble.

Now, that we have had him as President for one year, nothing has changed and the hope is dimming by the minute. His first year in office has been notable for basically one thing: he has accomplished nothing. Gitmo is still operating. Health Care Reform may or may not happen. Cap and Trade is effectively dead (especially in light of Climategate). The Recession is still destroying the lives of millions of Americans. And, based upon yesterday’s latest report, here comes the inflation we have all been dreading. The President, for all intents and purposes, has been a failure.

Obama’s approval rating is at the lowest ever for a President in office for one year. That is a bad thing for the country, but a good thing for the Republican Party. When you factor in the approval rating of Congress or should I say its 68% percent disapproval rating; the universal dislike of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Chris Dodd; and, the insistence on passing a health care bill even though almost 70% of the country do not want it, things do not look too rosy for the Democratic Party in 2010.

In the past few days, it has become evident that Democratic Congressmen see the writing on the wall. They are beginning to announce their retirements. As of my last count, four have decided not to seek reelection. The most recent being a long term Congressman from Tennessee.

Will 2010 be a repeat of 1994? Or, will it be even worse for the Democratic Party than 1994? Who knows? I can just say for the record I would not want to be running for reelection as a member of any party right now; especially the Democrats.

The Tea Party movement which has been largely ignored by the main stream media and scoffed at by the Democratic leadership is currently polling higher than the mainstream Republican Party. On its face, this would appear to be bad for the Republicans. But, it may actually be good because the Tea Party movement is, for the most part, all Republican. So, unless they form their own party, these people will be voting Republican in November. Of course, if they do form their own party, as I have said in the past, it will represent the end of the conservative movement as we know it. The Democrats will have control for years to come.

A few days ago, I firmly believed that Congress would pass some sort of health care reform within the next 60 days. However, yesterday’s events may have made it less likely. Just when Harry Reid seemed to have reached a compromise to get his filibuster proof 60 votes, his own party began to splinter. Ex DNC Chairman Howard Dean went on the record as saying that the entire Senate Bill should be scratched because it has become spineless. Per Mr. Dean, without a public option there is nothing to discuss. If Dean is successful, whatever Reid was accomplishing in the Senate will dissipate quickly. Only then, will Health Care Reform have to become bipartisan for anything to happen. Abortion, Tort Reform and the Free Market for Health Insurance will have to be addressed. If Harry Reid and the President are smart about this, they may be able to pass Health Care Reform with Republican support, albeit the left wing of the Democratic Party will be left in the dust! Good riddance to them I say.

On another front, just this morning, Iran launched another test missile. In the past year, President Obama has done nothing to stop Iran’s nuclear program. Will the events of the past 24 hours change his attitude? Or, must the world rely completely on Israel to stop this threat? It seems that this is going to be the case. Facing extreme opposition from the left wing of his party, President Obama is not going to confront Iran in any way that will scare its leadership into submission. Our only hope is that Obama does not try to stop Israel from doing what is necessary.

By the way, I was at a dinner last week in which a very prevalent Congressman was speaking. Congressman Mark Kirk from Illinois, a member of the House Armed Services Committee and the current Republican hopeful to take President Obama’s Illinois Senate seat, stated that one of the biggest blunders made by President Obama in foreign affairs was the removal of the missile shield from Poland. Appeasing the Russians here was a tragic strategic error. Kirk made it clear that the missile defense system in question was not just to protect NATO countries. Apparently Poland is a direct line between Iran and the United States. That missile defense system would be protecting the United States from an Iranian missile attack.

I could go on forever, but this is enough for one of my last columns of 2009. In concluding, this has not been a very good year for the country, its President and its Congress. However, I do not hear anyone saying right now that the Republican Party is dead and should be buried. In fact, all I hear is that the Republican Party is going to possibly take back Congress in 2010. Of course, if the economy turns around in the next nine months, 2010 could turn into a good year for Democrats again!

© 2009 by Frank T. DeMartini. Permission to copy will be granted freely upon request.

Who Really Has the Courage?

Last Saturday night, in what was mostly a procedural vote, the Senate approved moving forward with debate on the health care reform bill. The vote was 60-39, the barest minimum necessary for debate to start in the Chamber. To listen to Harry Reid and his cohorts after the vote, you would think the Senate had just accomplished the greatest feat since the creation of man. What they really did was nothing . . . . . yet. (I’m sorry, maybe they did do something. It appears they bought the vote of Senator Mary Landrieu from Louisiana with a staggering amount of pork.)

Sometime after Thanksgiving, true debate in the Senate will begin. The pros and cons of Mr. Reid’s bill will finally be debated in front of the American public. But, will it be a true debate at all? Or, will it just be a front in which enough pork will be put into the bill to get the votes of Joe Lieberman, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson; the four Democrats who must be swayed into Harry Reid’s pack of wolves. The same pack of wolves whose intent is ruining America under the guise of health care reform.

Each of these four has told Mr. Reid, in no uncertain terms, they are not going to close debate now that it has opened, unless a few specific issues in the bill are dealt with to their satisfaction. Three of these mavericks come from right leaning states and are, frankly, worried about their jobs. One comes from a far left state: Lieberman, the distinguished Senator from Connecticut, who seems to be the only Democrat left in the Senate with any balls and brains.

The Republicans are ready to make their stand in the Senate. It seems they have been successful already in killing “Cap and Trade” there. Now, it is up to them and any one of these four rogue Democrats to succeed in destroying this nightmare health care legislation in the Senate. We only need one of them. Who from these four will be the savior of the country?

I am reminded of the famous book written by John F. Kennedy entitled “Profiles in Courage.” That book, written in the mid-1950’s, told the story of eight senators throughout history, who defied their party and/or public opinion, to do what was right and in the best interests of the country. Among those stories, is that of Senator Edmund G. Ross from Kansas who defied his party and voted for the acquittal of Andrew Johnson in his impeachment trial thereby preserving the integrity of the Presidency.

Who will be the Democrat that will defy the whims of a power hungry President, the Senate Majority Leader and the Speaker of the House? Who will be the man or woman that will save this country from bankruptcy? Which of these four has the courage to buck the demands of the power elite and do what is right for America?

Senator Lieberman has said that he will not vote for any bill that has a public option. On Meet the Press yesterday, Lieberman confirmed he will support such a filibuster. He also stated that the CBO has confirmed that the proposed Senate Public Option will have higher premiums than private insurance currently does. He stated that competition among the current insurance companies is the only real solution. Will he ultimately have the courage?

Where does Mary Landrieu really stand? Is she being bought by Senator Harry Reid? The allegations are coming fast. In fact, it appears that that page 463 et seq. of the Senate version of the bill is a direct 100 million dollar bribe to the state of Louisiana. Apparently, the house bill has the same thing in it as well. Regardless, I firmly believe that Ms. Landrieu is too afraid of her job to vote against her conscience. The same is also true of Ms. Lincoln from Arkansas, except for the bribery. I too feel that she will vote her conscience when push comes to shove.

That leaves Mr. Nelson from Nebraska. Where does he really stand and can the Republicans and the rest of the country depend upon him to save the day. My answer would be yes. Even if Lieberman, Landrieu and Lincoln cave, I believe that Nelson is strong enough to tell Harry Reid and the President, “No!” He has publicly stated that he will not support a single payer public option; that he will not support publically funded abortions; and, that he will not support a bill that is not revenue neutral. Fortunately, for us Republicans, the current Senate bill includes all three.

In fact, if all of these problems with the Senate Bill were resolved to the liking of Senator Nelson, then many Republicans might actually vote for the bill as well.

So, at the end of the day, which of these four will have the courage? Who will save the United States of America? My guess is that any of the four may do it, but if that idiot from Maine votes with the Democrats, maybe we really need two of these four.

I will address particular problems with the Senate Bill later.

© 2009 by Frank T. DeMartini. Permission to copy will be freely granted upon request.

Obama Swinging to the Right?

This is not going to be a formal post, but I think all of you should note three things that have happened in the last 24 hours:

1.  President Obama, while being interviewed by Fox News, stated that too much government debt could fuel a double dip recession;

2.  President Obama, in the same interview, stated that closing Gitmo is a lot harder than he thought and that it would remain open longer than he expected; and,

3.  Eric Holder, in a Congressional hearing this morning started using the word "War" when describing the current state with Terrorists.  He also guaranteed convictions of the Muslim Extremists.  This is actually odd.  I don't know any prosecutor at any level that would guarantee convictions.

Am I missing things here, or are these major flip/flops?

Or, maybe something deeper is happening here?  Maybe Obama is beginning to realize that the Republicans are correct on certain positions?  Now, if he could actually admit it, there would be a chance at bipartisanship.

Maybe, he can actually admit it on "Health Care", "Cap and Trade", and "Iran", and "North Korea," soon too.

Or, am I dreaming?

Copyright 2009 by Frank T. DeMartini

The Ideology of a Liberal

Since the health care debate has wound down a little as a result of President Obama’s speech on Wednesday which, by the way, was pure rhetoric and seen by the General Public and pundits as a failure because of its lack of new ideas and detail, I have decided to tackle a subject other than health care reform in this article. What makes a liberal tick? Why are there such major differences between the two parties in this country?

The other day I was playing on Facebook and saw a number of posts from my liberal friends regarding health care. The comments posted were all similar. No one should go without health care in this country and no one should go broke because they got sick. Why only liberals would post this amazes me, because there are not too many people in the world that disagree. However, it is just not that simple.

In response, I posted a few comments. The majority of them were along the line of “Yes, I agree too, but who is going to pay for it and how is it going to work?” Almost universally, the liberal responses were either “The Rich,” or “Bring the Troops Back from Iraq and Afghanistan.” I then realized that most thinking from Liberals is not based upon logic. In fact, from these responses, it appears liberal thinking is idealist and based upon emotion. This has been argued in the past by both Ann Coulter and Dennis Prager among others. I now agree.

Whether you agree with the War on Terror is not the issue. The troops are committed. You cannot simply bring them back. To think bringing them back can be accomplished overnight is not to think realistically. You must leave them there as long as necessary to accomplish your goals or to train the local military to do it themselves. In Iraq because of the surge, this is quickly happening. In Afghanistan, it is a different story.

The Afghanistan situation is beginning to look like Vietnam. Either we make the commitment to beat the Taliban or we will be involved in a war of attrition which cannot be won. President Obama must take the steps necessary to accomplish the goal. Anything short of that will give the Taliban and Al Qaeda the foothold they need to take over the Afghanistan government again and to possibly move on Pakistan to get control of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. This is unacceptable.

The second response “The Rich” is also idealistic. How much more taxation do you think the rich are going to take before they completely revolt? The middle class and blue collar workers at the Tea Parties on Saturday show that they are fed up. And, they are not paying nearly as much of their income as the rich. If you add another 5% to the marginal tax rate as proposed in HR 3200, most of The Rich will be paying almost 50% of their income in taxes before state income taxes are even considered. In California and New York, that is more than 10%. (This analysis includes sales taxes, property taxes, luxury taxes, etc., as well as income taxes and other income withholding). And, you wonder why people are leaving California for Nevada, Arizona, Washington and other low tax states by the thousands. People; rich, middle class or poor, will just not tolerate more.

As shown by the previous examples, both responses given me last week by the liberals are just not realistic. They are based upon emotion. There is no logic behind them. Hence we have the major difference. Conservatives think logically and based upon the reality seen in facts and figures. Liberals think emotionally and from idealistic goals and ambitions. The two do not mix.

Let us examine a few other examples:

What about the current Administration’s outlook on foreign affairs? President Obama, during his campaign, said that he would talk and negotiate with the radicals in Iran, Venezuela and North Korea. Since he has become President, what has this policy gotten him; nothing. Iran continues its nuclear ambitions unabated. Venezuela continues poking its nose at the United States and its President. And, North Korea does whatever it wants and will soon, not only have nuclear weapons, but will also have missiles capable of delivering them.

Most recently, the tape from Osama Bin Laden is just another example of the failure of President’s Obama’s policy. After his speech in Egypt, everyone on the left believed the Radical Moslems would change their attitude towards the United States. All one has to do is listen to Bin Laden’s tape released in the last two days to realize that the emotional based thinking of the left is a far cry from the realism of the situation.

In the Palestinian/Israeli conflict, the President says that Israel should cease building settlements. The Prime Minister of Israel agrees in principle provided that the Palestinians agree to recognize Israel’s right to exist. The Palestinians say ‘no’ and Israel continues its expansion into the West Bank. Another failure of idealism on the Administration’s part

Those that truly understand foreign affairs could have predicted these outcomes. Learning from the past and the use of logic as done by conservatives, works. The emotion and idealism of the left does not. The Left’s desire for everything to be right and for everything to be fair controls their policy. Unfortunately, this is not reality. And, hopefully, President Obama is beginning to get it now too. All evidence however is to the contrary.

The same is true with “Cap and Trade” and Health Care Reform. Both liberal positions are based upon idealism and emotion. Everyone would like to lower carbon emissions and make the environment a better place. Everyone would love universal health care. But, the fact of the matter is that “Cap and Trade” will cause many businesses in this country to fail and for those that do not fail, there will be many lost jobs. The realism behind Health Care Reform or any of the plans under consideration by Congress now would bankrupt the country. There is no plan that is revenue neutral at this point.

In all of these situations, the liberal agenda is fueled by idealism and emotion. Maybe, if liberals started thinking logically and based upon the realities of the world, there would be less partisanship in Congress and more could be accomplished. Emotion is no way to govern this or any other country.

© 2009 by Frank T. DeMartini. Permission to be copied will be freely granted upon request.

Obama's Next Folly - Healthcare

President, it has to happen today, Obama is up to his tricks again. In February, the stimulus bill had to be passed immediately or disaster was waiting. “Cap and Trade” had to pass immediately or another crisis would occur. Now, it’s time for healthcare. The House must pass a health care bill this week or the American people will be in for another disaster.

So, Obama asks and Congress obeys! Here we have another 1,000 plus page bill winding its way through the House of which I am sure almost no member of Congress has read. Just get it done before anyone knows what’s going on. Make it happen fast! That appears to be the logic behind the President’s legislative agenda. If you get the ball rolling, pass it and sign it before anyone reads it.

We all know how much good the February stimulus bill did; none. If anyone had a chance to analyze it and the pork associated with it, it would have never passed. It looks like “Cap and Trade” may be dead in the Senate. People must have read it and told their Senators to make sure it dies. I guess things did not move fast enough for the Administration.

Now, let us look at the health care bill. The rich are in for it again per the Democrats. The Democrats are proposing that the top income earners will see their income taxes increase in order to pay the approximate one trillion dollars that this bill will cost our future generations. The top tax rate would go up by 5.4%. This would be on couples earning more than one million dollars. The smallest increase would be on couples earning more than $350,000. They would get an additional tax bill of one percent of their income.

If you analyze those tax raises carefully, you will see that President Obama is now breaking one of his most vocal campaign promises. If you remember way back to last November, he preached to his loyal followers that “no one making less than $250,000 would get a tax increase.” Well if you do the math, an individual earning $175,000 will get a tax increase of one percent. You may ask how I came to this figure. Well, if couples earning $350,000 are getting taxed at a higher rate, an individual (single person) would be taxed at $175,000. That unfortunately is the way the tax code works.

The bill additionally states that any individual without medical insurance would be forced to pay a penalty of 2.5 percent of his/her income up to a cap of the cost of medical insurance. In Southern California medical insurance for an individual runs approximately $6,000 per year. So, someone making $250,000 per year would be paying $6,750 per year more in taxes. How did I get to this figure? Let’s not forget that one percent tax increase.

However, there is another break of the ultimate campaign promise here. The middle class wage earner making $50,000 per year would be penalized $1,250. You can call it a penalty or anything you want, but it is a tax. So, now the anointed one is proposing to raise taxes on the real middle class. This is not someone making $250,000 per year. It is not even close. To someone making $50,000 per year, $1,250 per year in additional taxes is a real blow. And, on top of it, the poor soul still would not have health insurance.

But, that not the real shot below the belt which is the penalty on employers for not providing health insurance. This proposed penalty is 8% of a worker’s wages. That means every company that does not provide health insurance will pay a penalty to the US Government in the amount of $8,000 per $100,000 of payroll.

Talk about messing with the middle class and the employment rates. Again, Obama and his economic geniuses are killing employment in this country. Do you think any business is going to absorb this cost?

If the company chooses to give health insurance, they will be forced to pay approximately $6,000 per employee in Southern California. This $6,000 would come from only a few places; one, the employee’s pocket, two, the consumer’s pocket, or, three from employees losing their jobs to pay for this mess. Companies are working at small enough margins as it is now with the economy in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. They are not going to absorb this kind of loss. Of course, the proponents of the bill are saying that there will be a small business exception to the requirements and penalties. How that will be defined in the final bill is anybody’s guess?

So, who will benefit from this plan? You may say the poor and uninsured. The poor already have access to health care. They just show up at emergency rooms and get treated or they qualify for Medicaid. So, it’s not them. It’s not the middle class. We already looked at that. It’s not the rich, since they are paying for it. It’s not the business owners since they are getting burned again. Who? NO ONE.

Yes, a large portion of people who are not insured will be under this plan. That is true. But, they will be paying for it either in the form of higher taxes or lower wages. Some people making less than $250,000 per year cannot afford that. In fact, as I said above, the poor soul making $50,000 per year cannot afford to lose $1,250.

To put it simply, this plan is a joke and should be killed this time before it even gets to the Senate. So, get your pens out and start writing your Congressmen again. If enough people complain about this crap going on in Congress, it might actually stop.

As an aside, I had lunch today with a fellow entertainment industry Republican, Michael Mandaville, and he had an interesting analysis of this health care bill. In the movie industry, people are hired usually for short periods of time during the course of a production of a film. On a union picture, most people have insurance, but not all. On a non-union film, almost no one has health insurance.

Under this proposed health care plan, a catastrophe will happen to the entertainment industry. Let’s say for arguments sake that 30 crew members on a film have no insurance. These 30 people will work an average of approximately three months on a film. If you figure that the average cost of health insurance is $500 per month, the budget of the film will go up $15,000 per month to cover these employees. Over the course of three months, that is an additional $45,000 added to the cost of making the movie. Say goodbye to film making in the United States. Whatever is still here, will be gone. (And, this whole analysis is based upon low budget movies. On a high budget movie, you could be talking an additional cost in the hundreds of thousands of dollars).

Well, that’s about if for now. Until next week . . . . . .

© 2009 Frank T. DeMartini. Permission to copy will be freely given upon request.

“Cap and Trade” is Dangerous

The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, more commonly known as the Cap and Trade Bill is dangerous for the country and potentially disastrous for the economy. I cannot say this more simply. This bill which is designed to lower emissions and stop global warming will do nothing except raise the average Americans’ expenses and cause the loss of many American jobs.

The bill passed in the House last week by a margin of less than ten votes. The vote was mostly among party lines. However, many Democrats sensing its disastrous consequences actually voted against it. In fact, if it were not for eight liberal minded Republicans, the bill would have failed. It is going to the Senate shortly and must be stopped there at all costs. As for those eight Republicans, I suggest they start looking for employment themselves.

Global warming is allegedly caused by the burning of fossil fuels. This Cap and Trade bill is supposed to lower emissions caused by such energy sources. It is the dream of former Vice President Al Gore who has made a mini-industry out of global warming and who does nothing personally to stop it. This typical Democratic hypocrite burns more carbon based fuels than 10 average Americans and yet he claims that we, as a country, are not doing enough to stop this potential disaster to the planet. I wonder when the last time he flew on a commercial airline was. But, that’s another column completely.

“Global Warming” is a rather controversial subject. There are many reputable scientists that believe it is the next major ecological disaster. In fact, some go so far as to say that it may lead to the extinction of the human race. However, there are other reputable scientists who say that it does not even exist. In fact, there was some controversy in the last two weeks about whether the EPA had suppressed a report that denied the existence of global warming at the request of the President. If that report is to be believed, then it is quite clear that the current President will do anything to get his agenda through Congress.

The liberals in control of Congress are using their substantial majorities to ram this “groundbreaking” clean air legislation through at a time when a bill that will stunt economic growth is not in the best interests of the country. As you know, President Obama said during the 2008 election, we are in the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Of course, Vice President Biden, just last week, said that the stimulus was not working because the economy was worse off than the Administration believed. How you can reconcile those two statements is pretty much beyond me. But, again that is the topic of another column.

Why is this bill a disaster and how will it stunt economic growth? The answer is very simple, but first an explanation is required about what exactly “Cap and Trade” means. This bill will put serious limitation upon carbon and other types of emissions. Businesses which pollute will be penalized for their pollutants in the form of higher taxes. However, those businesses that are exceeding the emission allotments (“caps”) will be able to buy or “trade” tax credits earned by the non-polluting companies in exchange for cash or other forms of remuneration. Hence the phrase, “cap and trade.”

On its face, this may seem like a good idea. But, what will happen in reality? Companies that pollute will have a few choices: one, meet the standards and pass the increased cost onto the consumer; two, buy credits from companies that do not pollute and pass the increased cost onto the consumer; or three, shut down in the United States and move their business to another country that does not have such regulations. In all three circumstances, the United States population suffers, either by increased costs or loss of employment.

How is this good for our country? Its not! How is it good for the world and the environment? Again, its not. Sending companies to foreign nations without any restraint on emissions will most probably increase the carbon based pollutants and not lower them. Accordingly, the whole bill is a sham. The only thing it will do is appease the liberal tree huggers that believe we are destroying the world.

So, here we are faced with a bill that will increase costs to the consumer and cause the loss of jobs in the United States. Just the thing we need in a time of the worst economic turndown since the Great Depression (which is not as bad as the Administration thought). This bill should be voted down and voted down quickly.

There are other reasons why this bill is a disaster. How about the fact that this 1,000 page “novel,” had approximately 300 pages added to it the day before its passage in the House so that the authors of the bill Reps. Henry Waxman and Edward Markey, both Democrats, could buy the additional votes they needed to get the bill passed. These three hundred pages that were added were earmarks pure and simple. Additionally, I can guarantee you that almost none of the House members read the entire bill. Maybe, a handful actually glanced at it. In all seriousness, how can anyone read a “novel” like this overnight? I must admit, I have not read it either. But, I have, at least, read summaries.

Based upon the above, it is imperative that you all call your Congressmen and Senators and make sure this disaster is stopped dead in its tracks before it causes whatever progress is being made by the ill advised stimulus package to cease. A double dip recession and/or another stock market crash will make this the worst economy since the Great Depression and that can be worse than anyone has thought. Nest week, maybe I will talk about Obama’s next disaster, health care!

©2009 by Frank T. DeMartini. Permission will be freely given to copy upon request.